Ethiopia’s Landlocked Struggles: Broader Ambitions Beyond Sea Access Threaten Regional Security
Ethiopia, a landlocked nation with significant regional influence, has long sought access to the sea to enhance its economic and strategic capabilities. However, under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia’s broader ambitions have begun to threaten regional stability. The controversial Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed with the Northwest region of Somalia ‘Somaliland’ for establishing a naval base has drawn international condemnation, raising urgent concerns over Ethiopia’s disregard for international law and Somalia’s sovereignty. Although Ethiopia has not yet established the naval base, it has also refused to nullify the MOU, leaving the situation unresolved. This article explores Ethiopia’s landlocked challenges, the failure of diplomatic negotiations for sea access, and the broader implications of Ethiopia’s actions for regional security and U.S. national interests.
Ethiopia as a Failing State: Ethnic Conflict with Oromia, Tigray, and Amhara
Ethiopia’s internal conflicts, particularly among the Tigray, Oromo, and Amhara ethnic groups, have weakened the state’s authority and pushed the country toward failure. The conflict in Tigray, which began in 2020, has resulted in widespread displacement and severe human rights violations, while the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) continues to wage an insurgency in the Oromia region. The Amhara region has also experienced increasing tensions, further destabilising the country.
This internal fragmentation has left Ethiopia’s borders vulnerable, allowing for the smuggling of arms into neighbouring Somalia. Ethiopia’s inability to control its own territories is exacerbating regional instability, particularly in Somalia, where terrorist groups like al-Shabaab have gained strength through access to smuggled arms. Ethiopia’s internal struggles are no longer confined to its borders but are contributing to a broader crisis in the Horn of Africa.
National Emergency Extension and Its Implications
In response to Ethiopia’s destabilising role in the region, U.S. President Joseph R. Biden extended the national emergency under Executive Order 14046 on September 6, 2024. The United States has a significant interest in the stability of the Horn of Africa, particularly in its efforts to counter terrorism in Somalia. Initially issued in 2021, this declaration acknowledges the ‘unusual and extraordinary threat’ posed by the conflict in northern Ethiopia and its broader impact on regional peace. The extension of the national emergency reflects growing concern about Ethiopia’s internal collapse and external ambitions, particularly about Somalia.
The U.S. has invested heavily in counterterrorism efforts in Somalia, particularly in the fight against al-Shabaab. However, Ethiopia’s actions, including arms smuggling and the potential establishment of a naval base in Northwest region ‘Somaliland’, are undermining these efforts. The national emergency highlights the urgent need for sustained international attention and cooperation to prevent further destabilisation of the region and protect U.S. security interests.
Ethiopia’s Role in Arms Smuggling and Destabilizing Somalia
Ethiopia’s weakened borders have allowed arms smuggling into Somalia, where terrorist groups like al-Shabaab have used these weapons to strengthen their insurgency. This illegal arms trade has complicated Somalia’s efforts to stabilise the country and reclaim regions previously controlled by al-Shabaab. Despite progress made by Somali national forces with international support, Ethiopia’s internal disintegration is fueling terrorism in Somalia.
The smuggling of arms from Ethiopia into Somalia threatens to reverse the gains made by Somali forces, prolonging the conflict and weakening the country’s security. Ethiopia’s failure to prevent arms smuggling is directly contributing to Somalia’s instability, making Ethiopia a destabilising force in the region. The international community must address Ethiopia’s role in fueling terrorism and take decisive action to prevent further destabilisation.
The Naval Base MOU and Increased Terrorism Threats: A Violation of International Law
The MOU signed between Ethiopia and Northwest Somali ‘Somaliland’ for establishing a naval base has been widely condemned as illegal under international law. The northwest region of Somali ‘Somaliland’, while self-declared independent, is internationally recognized as part of Somalia. Ethiopia’s agreement to establish a naval base in the Northwest region of Somalia ‘Somaliland’ infringes on Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The Somali government has strongly objected to the MOU, arguing that it violates its sovereignty and international norms.
Despite international condemnation, Ethiopia has not yet nullified the MOU, and the naval base has not been established. The refusal to nullify the MOU has left the situation unresolved, creating uncertainty and tension in the region. The establishment of a naval base would further exacerbate security risks, potentially becoming a hub for terrorist activity, as groups like al-Shabaab could exploit the instability. Ethiopia’s broader ambitions for regional influence, coupled with its disregard for international law, continue to pose significant risks for the Horn of Africa.
Failed Negotiations for Sea Access: Ethiopia’s Broader Ambitions
Ethiopia’s desire for sea access, driven by its landlocked status, has long been a point of contention. In an attempt to resolve the issue, Ethiopia has sought mediation from Turkey to negotiate with Somalia. However, these negotiations have failed to produce fruitful outcomes due to Ethiopia’s broader ambitions, exceeding the legal provisions for landlocked states under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
The Somali government has stated that it is open to discussions about sea access for Ethiopia but only within the framework of UNCLOS, which grants landlocked countries the right to transit through neighbouring states to access the sea. However, Ethiopia’s demands go beyond transit rights. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government seeks greater control over maritime assets and coastal infrastructure, which is not permissible under UNCLOS.
Somalia has refused to negotiate face-to-face with Ethiopia until the illegal MOU for the naval base is nullified. The Somali government’s position is understandable, as it cannot negotiate while its sovereignty is violated. Ethiopia’s refusal to limit its ambitions to legal sea access under UNCLOS has led to a breakdown in negotiations, further exacerbating tensions between the two nations.
Somali National Forces’ Success with International Support
Despite Ethiopia’s destabilising actions, Somali national forces have made significant progress in liberating key regions from al-Shabaab’s control. With the support of international partners, including airpower and logistical assistance, Somalia’s forces have managed to reclaim large portions of the territory. These victories are critical to weakening al-Shabaab’s influence and restoring stability to the country.
However, the gains made by Somali forces remain fragile. The continued flow of arms from Ethiopia and the unresolved situation surrounding the illegal naval base threatens to undermine these efforts. Yet, the international community’s commitment to supporting Somalia’s counterterrorism efforts and addressing Ethiopia’s role in destabilising the region can pave the way for positive change and inspire hope for a more stable future.
The Case for Chapter 7 Sanctions on Ethiopia
Given Ethiopia’s illegal actions, its violation of Somalia’s sovereignty, and its broader ambitions, the international community must consider imposing stronger sanctions. The United Nations Security Council should invoke Chapter 7 of the UN Charter, which allows for the use of military and non-military actions to ‘restore international peace and security ‘. These actions could include economic sanctions, arms embargoes, or even military intervention.
Sanctions targeting Ethiopia’s leadership, including Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and its military and economic assets, would send a clear message that Ethiopia’s actions will not be tolerated. Smart sanctions, such as travel bans and asset freezes, could pressure Ethiopia to nullify the illegal MOU and cease destabilising activities. Additionally, restricting Ethiopia’s access to international financial markets would further pressure the government to comply with international law and respect Somalia’s sovereignty.
The imposition of Chapter 7 sanctions would hold Ethiopia accountable and protect Somalia’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. It would also serve as a deterrent to other nations that may seek to violate international law and destabilise the region.
U.S. National Security and Foreign Policy in Peril
Ethiopia’s actions, including its involvement in arms smuggling and its illegal naval base in Northwest Somalia ‘Somaliland’, pose a significant threat to U.S. national security and foreign policy in the Horn of Africa. The United States has been a key supporter of Somalia’s efforts to combat al-Shabaab and stabilise the region. However, Ethiopia’s destabilising role threatens to undo years of progress in Somalia and complicate U.S. counterterrorism efforts in the region.
The extension of the national emergency declared under Executive Order 14046 reflects the growing concern within the U.S. government about Ethiopia’s actions. Without decisive international intervention, Ethiopia’s actions could lead to a resurgence of terrorism and further destabilise the region, undermining U.S. national security interests and its broader foreign policy objectives in the Horn of Africa.
The Broader Regional and Geopolitical Impact
Ethiopia’s destabilising actions, including the unresolved MOU for a naval base in the northwest region of Somalia ‘Somaliland’ and its arms smuggling into Somalia, have broader implications for the entire Horn of Africa. Neighbouring countries such as Kenya, Sudan, and Eritrea are all affected by Ethiopia’s actions, as the region faces growing security risks due to Ethiopia’s unchecked ambitions. The threat of the potential establishment of the naval base and continued arms smuggling are creating new challenges for regional peace, threatening to draw neighbouring states into broader conflicts.
Ethiopia’s broader ambitions for regional influence and its failure to manage its internal conflicts are pushing the Horn of Africa toward further instability. The international community must address these challenges and prevent Ethiopia’s actions from leading to a wider regional crisis.
- Conclusion:
Ethiopia’s landlocked struggles and broader ambitions beyond sea access are creating a significant threat to the Horn of Africa and U.S. national security interests. The illegal MOU signed with the northwest region of Somalia ‘Somaliland’ for the establishment of a naval base violates international law and undermines Somalia’s sovereignty. Although Ethiopia has not yet established the naval base, its refusal to nullify the MOU has left the situation unresolved, contributing to regional tension.
The international community, led by the United Nations, must take decisive action to address Ethiopia’s destabilising role. The imposition of Chapter 7 sanctions on Ethiopia’s leadership and military, combined with increased support for Somalia’s counterterrorism efforts, is essential to restore peace and stability in the region. Failure to act risks plunging the Horn of Africa into deeper conflict, with far-reaching consequences for global security and counterterrorism efforts.