Last year, a leaked intelligence report from the Somali government unveiled a roster of highly trained Al Qaida operatives deeply embedded within the Al Shabab insurgency. This list included fighters from neighboring countries such as Kenya, Ethiopia, and Tanzania. Despite some of these militants being neutralized, the threat looms large, compelling the Somali government to urgently seek a multinational force to combat Al Shabab. This plea for assistance echoed the successful formation of the Multinational Joint Task Force that quelled Boko Haram in Nigeria in 2014-2015. Regrettably, none of Somalia’s neighbors heeded this pressing call.
The leaked report also unmasked Al Shabab members from various ethnic groups, including the Amhara, Uraga, and Oromo from Ethiopia, as well as Kenyan Somalis and Kikuyu. These individuals, honed by Al Qaida, possess advanced skills in making explosive devices with minimal equipment. The Ethiopian government, in particular, is now gripped with deep concern about the Amhara ethnic Muslims in the report. Many of these fighters are highly trained and have the expertise to create explosives, posing a grave threat if they infiltrate Ethiopia, where the Amhara are already embroiled in conflict with the Ethiopian army.
In response, Ethiopia has deployed non-professional troops to its border with Somalia, attempting to prevent these militants from entering the country. This has led to clashes between Ethiopian forces and Somali clans living along the border. With the Somali National Army focusing on combatting Al Shabab, clan militias, who have been instrumental in the fight against the group, have become de facto national guards in remote areas. Over the past two weeks, numerous skirmishes have been reported in the southern states between Somali clans and Ethiopian forces.
Security experts argue that Ethiopia missed an opportunity to eradicate Al Shabab last year. However, they also suggest that controlling these highly trained insurgents slipping into Ethiopia undetected could be achieved with significantly more resources and manpower. The extensive and largely unguarded border between Somalia and Ethiopia complicates the situation further. Still, with increased surveillance and cooperation between the two countries, the movement of insurgents could be restricted, thereby reducing the security threat to the region.
