Why Al-Shabaab Will Never Return to Power in Mogadishu
Al-Shabaab, once the most dominant militant force in Somalia, reached its peak between 2009 and 2011. Despite its strength during that period, it failed to capture key regions such as Galgaduud, Mudug, and the entirety of Mogadishu. Today, some claim that Al-Shabaab is regaining control over Somalia, but this assertion is baseless. The reality on the ground tells a different story—one in which the group faces irreversible decline, largely due to the economic and military dominance of the Hawiye clan and its allies.
Historical Resistance Against Al-Shabaab
In 2010, Al-Shabaab launched a major offensive in central Somalia, including areas such as Guriceel in the Galgaduud region. At that time, Somalia lacked external military support from Turkey, ATMIS (formerly AMISOM), or other international allies. Instead, local clan-based forces and religious militias successfully resisted and defeated Al-Shabaab in battles across Bahdo, Feer-Feer, and near Beledweyne. These groups remained committed to repelling the militant group, ensuring that Al-Shabaab never returned to those areas.
By 2011, these same forces shifted their focus to Mogadishu, playing a decisive role in expelling Al-Shabaab from the capital. This historic victory demonstrated that Somali-led resistance—without heavy foreign intervention—was capable of crushing Al-Shabaab’s grip on power.
Today, Mogadishu remains beyond Al-Shabaab’s reach for three primary reasons:
1. The Hawiye Clan’s Economic and Security Dominance
The Hawiye clan, the most powerful economic and political force in Mogadishu, plays a crucial role in preventing Al-Shabaab’s resurgence. This realization became even clearer when the Somali government published intelligence data revealing the identities of individuals involved in terrorist activities. The findings exposed how Al-Shabaab disproportionately targets specific clans while using others as disposable tools for its own agenda.
As a response, the Hawiye clan and its affiliated groups—such as Digil & Mirifle—have taken an active role in defending Mogadishu. They provide crucial human intelligence to the government, helping security forces dismantle terrorist cells before they can carry out attacks.
A recent example of this mobilization occurred in the Middle Shabelle region, where Al-Shabaab attempted to infiltrate the area. In response, Hawiye militias from Mudug and Galgaduud quickly organized to counter the threat, proving that local resistance remains strong.
Furthermore, only a tiny fraction of Hawiye individuals are involved in criminal activities such as extortion and targeted killings. The vast majority of the clan is working closely with security forces, reporting suspicious activities, and exposing Al-Shabaab’s financial networks. As a result, Mogadishu has become more secure, attracting international businesses and investors. Major global brands are now building five-star hotels in the city, further disproving the myth that Al-Shabaab is making a comeback.
2. Strengthened Government Institutions and Intelligence Capabilities
The Somali government is stronger than ever before. Over the past four years, Western allies—including the United States, Canada, the EU, and China—along with Turkey, have heavily invested in Somalia’s security sector.
One of the most significant advancements has been the transformation of the Somali National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA). In 2024, NISA was ranked among Africa’s top ten intelligence agencies, a testament to its growing capabilities. The agency has received visits from high-ranking intelligence officials, including the heads of the CIA and MI6—an unprecedented show of confidence in Somalia’s security sector.
With enhanced intelligence-sharing and counterterrorism capabilities, Al-Shabaab’s operational freedom in Mogadishu has been severely restricted. The group now struggles to plan and execute attacks in a city where it once held significant influence.
3. Clans Outside Hawiye Are Also Fighting Al-Shabaab
Another critical factor in Al-Shabaab’s decline is the growing resistance from non-Hawiye clans. While the Hawiye clan plays a central role, other groups—including the Digil & Mirifle and various Darod subclans—are also actively combating Al-Shabaab.
During my time in Mogadishu, several high-ranking security officials informed me about government-backed clan militias mobilizing across different regions. These militias include fighters from the Biyo-Maal, Jiido, Gare, Hadamo, Leysaan, and Marehan clans. Armed with government support, they have taken up the responsibility of defending their communities and reporting Al-Shabaab movements.
This expansion of resistance has significantly weakened Al-Shabaab’s ability to recruit and operate freely. Unlike in previous years, the group now faces a more coordinated and widespread opposition, making its survival increasingly difficult.
Al-Shabaab’s Decline: A Reality, Not a Theory
The claim that Al-Shabaab is regaining power in Somalia is nothing more than wishful thinking by those who underestimate the resilience of Somali communities. The group is in decline—financially, ideologically, and militarily. Its once-powerful networks are being dismantled by an increasingly sophisticated Somali intelligence apparatus. Its recruitment strategies are failing as more clans turn against it. And its ability to control territory has been drastically reduced.
The idea that Al-Shabaab will return to Mogadishu is not just unlikely—it is impossible. The combination of a dominant Hawiye economic and security presence, strengthened government institutions, and multi-clan resistance ensures that the militant group remains on a path to irreversible defeat.
